Models’ Vs Real-World Observations

In the article by Robert Mitchell in Friday’s, July 1^st, Tribune-Review about “what the real science world says about climate models”. The article states that climate models have predicted for decades that the global temperature would now be about 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels- in good agreement with current measurements. However, if you reference the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest models (CMIP6) the difference between the modelled results and observations during 1979 – 2019 do not agree with each other. Furthermore, Dr. Christy (Irish Climate Science Forum, Jan 21, 2021) demonstrated that the “consensus” of the models fails the test for matching the real-world observations by a significant margin. 

In the paper, Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Models Projections”, an evaluation between radiative projected and observed forcing are used to better the model performance. So basically, if you know the observed forces and use that information in the models, guess what, you get reasonable agreement between observed temperatures and those projected from the climate models. 

The IPCC climatologists’ massive modeling efforts have so far been futile. The problems of climate modeling are none of the full Earth System Models (ESM) are validated against any observational studies of earth’s climate over protracted period. 

Vincent J Esposito